| 作者 |
 Update on my market view |
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emperorfan
[博客]
年龄: 49
加入时间: 2010/02/05
文章: 2008
海归分: 814623
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作者：emperorfan 在 谈股论金 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
Russell 2000 has performed better than SP and Dow for past week.
Major markets are set to resume their short term bull rally in the next 4 weeks. In 2009 financial stocks fueled the rally and spilled over to the other sectors resulted in a massive year end rally. Financial stocks rally ended last year October itself !!. Since October it was techs, telecoms, and commodities lead the market and now techs, telecoms, financials are all on the same path. Moreover UYG and XLF financial ETF's are sitting at a very critical level i.e ready to break out on upside from a six month basing pattern. This breakout in financials will carry the major indexes to most likely this year high in the next 4 to 6 weeks. XLF one of the bellwether financial ETF is trading at 15.47 which is very critical resistance level. Best case scenario is XFL will trade sideways for a week or so before breakout around $15. Recent movements in bank stocks such as GS, BAC, C, JPM, WFC, UBS, PRU, AIG are some of the key stocks leading the rally.
(I sold my AIG but kept C, BAC, GS, PRU, HIG)
DJ-30 to test 11111
SP-500- 1222 (62% retracement of OCT07)
NASDAQ - 2525.
Chip stocks such as INTC, AMD, MRVL, BRCM, FLEX, JNPR are showing strength going in to earnings season. along with financials C, JPM, MS, LM, BAC and GS
UYG and XLF are good long term accumulation ETF's with upside potential up to 50% in the next 12 to 18 months.
Insurances stocks are to be watched namely HIG, LNC, PRU MCY EBIX (software for insurance) MIG ( michigan ba<x>sed). I like PRU and HIG as thery are ready to break on upside PRU is heasing toward 67 from the Fridays closing 54 and HIG to mid 30's.
Almost every stock that I mentioned have gone up on an average 12% in less than 2 weeks !!
RIMM is up to 75 + 20%
HRBN traded as high as 26 +30%
(I truly wish you had sold it at 26. It's volatile and back to 23 now)
PCX 35%
UBS +20%
Note: Volatility looks low to me, it's preferred to buy volatility than sell volatility.
涨跌牛熊，是脑子里左右互搏的问题，65%是以上，
为免误导，我谈谈剩下的35%担心
1- FUND MANAGER's cash level at 3.6% historical low. Unless retail investors jump in, there is limited powder left.
2. Need higher volume to confirm the high advance-decline ratio. Right now, breadth is stronger than volume.
3. Double top seemingly to be there, what then? Oct2007 is a double top
4. stock usually top in March but bottom in Octorber.
5 VIX is low, and will probably increase
The higher it goes, the more cautious I'd be .
觉得牛时，不妨读读BEAR 的文章，比如GLUSKIN SHEF 的DAVID ROSENBERG，他原来供职美林。GLUSKINSHEF 可注册免费阅读他的每日唱衰 评论，十分推荐。
作者：emperorfan 在 谈股论金 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
上一次由emperorfan于2010-3-13 周六, 13:08修改，总共修改了1次
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 Update on my market view -- emperorfan - (2620 Byte) 2010-3-12 周五, 13:19 (2539 reads)
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