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[原创]Loan Growth Number

天凉好个哈糗

头衔: 海归上校
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加入时间: 2006/03/27
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标题: [原创]Loan Growth Number (1549 reads) 时间: 2009-4-10 周五, 21:36

作者：天凉好个哈糗 在海归商务发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com

Had a discussion with a friend over this topic for a while, ever since the rumor started last week from Caijing that new loan amount in March is going to be another 1.8 trillion, adding on top of an existing 1.7 trillion in Jan and 1.1 trillion in Feb.

Sequentially, a good question to ask is, will PBOC move, given the New Loan target for 2009 is set to be only around RMB 5 trillion and we are now not far away from there.

Before anything to be concluded, let us look at some facts.

A. PBOC was out to mop up liquidity by issuing Central Bank Notes (From Shang Hai Security). On the first week of April, PBOC issued about RMB 80 billion of 3 months CBN to absorb the excess liquidity; and this number increased to RMB 95 billion on the 2nd week.

B. 1Q of 2009 sees the biggest CBN maturity, which made the total issuance less than the amount of matured, i.e., open market operation from PBOC looks big but indeed not, so still a net injection of liquidity, while making it on a smaller basis by CBN issuance.

With that being said, I guess the best way to look at what is going to happen is, PBOC might want to be there and say something, to act as if they are not asleep, but it won’t actually move aggressively to neither of the directions given:

1. To turn off the injection of liquidity is not just a decision can be made by PBOC on its own since it is such a useful tool to stimulate the economy. It will be something of higher level like State Council.

2. Though macro number out there is improving but it is still mixed and far away to a level of a recovery yet. It will be an embarrassing mistake to make, to soak up the liquidity too early now and to be forced to re-open the gate later on.

So, while a decline of loan growth number in April is reasonable, personally speaking I do not see a huge risk of near term tightening from PBOC or anything alike.

That having been said, we also need to note that, given we had such a run for the past quarter, the market might want to take this opportunity to take profit, regardless what PBOC actually can do and will do. Sell before Mr. Zhou Xiao Chuang…

作者：天凉好个哈糗 在海归商务发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com

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