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 [转]WSJ:Hard-Fought, Historic Contest Ends With Obama Victory |
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tahiti
[博客]
[个人文集]
游客
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作者：游客 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
2008年11月05日12:18
Wins in key battleground states put Sen. Barack Obama over the top in a hard-fought presidential race, eliminating rival Sen. John McCain's path to the White House.
Sen. McCain's defeat in Ohio followed losses in Florida, Pennsylvania, New Mexico and New Hampshire, swing states he was hoping to secure for the Republican column.
With the victory, Sen. Obama becomes the nation's 44th president elect, riding a tide of voter discontent with the economy, the war in Iraq and eight years of Republican White House rule. A victory after an epic two-year campaign alters the racial dynamics of a country that has long struggled with questions of color.
It also ushers in a period of dominance for Democrats in Washington for the first time since the early years of Bill Clinton's first term. In early returns, Democrats had already captured several Republican-held Senate seats in New Hampshire, North Carolina, New Mexico and Virginia. Democrats were also gunning to increase their margins in the House.
Fierce Headwinds
If the final results turn out as projected, Sen. Obama's party will control both houses of Congress as well as the White House, setting the scene for Democrats to push an ambitious agenda from health care to financial regulation. These plans will face fierce headwinds from the sour economy and giant budget deficits.
Sen. Obama's campaign was built on record fund-raising and a vast national campaign network. He would enter office with a long policy wish list that includes ending the war in Iraq, implementing a near-universal health-insurance plan and finding alternatives to Middle Eastern oil. His ability to implement these plans will be constrained by the stuttering economy, which could be in recession, and continuing financial crisis.
Many of these promises are expensive and could be complicated by record budget deficits, a looming entitlement crisis as the Baby Boom generation retires.
The preliminary results suggest a startling turnaround from just four years ago, when Republicans controlled Congress and the White House, and benefited from a conservative majority on the Supreme Court. The party's intellectual leaders spoke of a permanent Republican majority in Washington.
Overall, voters went to the polls in a sour mood about the economy, the war in Iraq and President George W. Bush, all factors working in Sen. Obama's favor. It would have been an uphill struggle for any Republican.
Sen. Obama also took Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin, Democratic-leaning states where Sen. McCain competed, believing his record of crossing party lines would win over independents and some Democrats.
Sen. Obama won in traditionally Democratic turf across the Northeast and elsewhere. He took
New York, Connecticut, Vermont, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, his home state of Illinois and the District of Columbia.
Sen. McCain won, as expected, in
Oklahoma, Tennessee, Kentucky, Alabama, South Carolina and Wyoming, as well as North Dakota and Georgia, two states Sen. Obama reached for.
National exit poll results found Sen. Obama won two-thirds of Hispanics and more than two-thirds of voters aged 18 to 29. He took 96% of black voters, who increased their share of the electorate from 11% to 13%. He took one in four evangelical votes, up from 21% for Democrat John Kerry in 2004.
Sen. Obama won among women but lost among men, national exit polls show. And he won among independents but divided the suburban vote.
Helping Sen. Obama: Democrats make up a larger share of the electorate this year than they did four years ago, when equal numbers of voters identified as Democrats and as Republicans. This time, 40% said they were Democrats and just 32% said they were Republicans.
Eighty-five percent of all voters said they were very or somewhat worried about the nation's economy, with eight in 10 worried that the economic crisis would harm their family's finances over the next year, according to early exit-poll results. Just 20% of voters said the country was generally going in the right direction. The economy was far and away the No. 1 issue for voters.
Sen. McCain struggled to connect on both economic and foreign policy. Half of all voters said they expected their taxes to go up no matter who wins, despite a campaign by Sen. McCain to paint his rival as a tax raiser. And while Sen. McCain repeatedly argued that the U.S. is winning the war in Iraq, more than six in 10 voters disapproved of the war.
Voters were more likely to say that Sen. McCain has the experience for the job than Sen. Obama. But voters were more likely to say that Sen. Obama was in touch with people like them, and had the right judgment to make a good president.
Amazing Race
Tuesday's voting brought to a close the longest and most expensive presidential campaign in U.S. history, with the general election costing about $1.6 billion, double the 2004 presidential race, according to the Center for Responsive Politics. After nearly two years of campaigning, Americans were set to make history, whatever the outcome.
The race featured the first woman, Sen. Hillary Clinton, to seriously contend for a party nomination. Gov. Sarah Palin became the first woman to appear on the Republican ticket. And Sen. Obama broke ground as the first black party nominee for president.
Americans went to the polls in what were expected to be record numbers, including the 30% of all voters who voted early. In total, voter-registration numbers were up 7.3% compared with the last presidential election, for a total of 153 million eligible voters.
The race also featured the most extensive use yet of the Internet. Online social networks spread the campaign to corners of the country that had never before experienced such intense electioneering.
Last-Minute Push
Sen. Obama began the day by casting his own ballot in his hometown of Chicago with his wife, Michelle, and their two daughters, Malia, 10 years old, and Sasha, 7, looking on.
In Phoenix, Sen. McCain and his wife, Cindy, cast their ballots at Albright United Methodist Church, as supporters outside cheered him on.
Months in the Making
Sen. Obama launched his candidacy on the statehouse steps of Springfield, Ill., nearly two years ago. He was a freshman senator known mainly for a keynote speech at the 2004 Democratic Convention and a best-selling book. The son of a white woman from Kansas and a Kenyan immigrant who once herded goats, the relative newcomer came with a foreign-sounding name and associations that would prove to be chronic liabilities.
His spiritual adviser, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, had issued incendiary sermons from the pulpit of Sen. Obama's church. A convicted felon, Tony Rezko, helped him purchase a Chicago home. And Republicans tried to tie Sen. Obama to an associate and neighbor, William Ayers, a domestic terrorist in the 1960s.
With that baggage, he took on one of the most powerful names in Democratic politics, Sen. Clinton, defeating her after a long primary fight. Sen. Obama's campaign beat the Clinton machine by going where she was not, racking up victories in states such as Idaho, Kansas and Wyoming.
His general election campaign pitted him against a Republican with a reputation for bucking his party. Sen Obama stuck to two themes relentlessly: Sen. McCain, he said, offered a third term for President Bush, while he was the agent of change.
Sen. McCain, the son and grandson of four-star admirals, came to national fame 35 years ago as a prisoner in the Vietnam War. He turned to politics after injuries sustained in captivity prevented him from flying.
He first ran for president in 2000, losing in the GOP primary to Mr. Bush. In preparing for the 2008 contest, Sen. McCain worked to establish himself as the front-runner.
His campaign was large and expensive and nearly collapsed in July 2007. He began again with a barebones operation. He ran as a promoter of the war in Iraq at a time when it was deeply unpopular. He pushed for and then backed the early 2007 surge in troops that turned out to be an important factor in the country's turnaround.
The choice of Gov. Palin thrilled conservatives but turned off other voters, especially the independents he would need. Exit polls Tuesday found that six in 10 voters said she is not qualified to be president should it become necessary. Those voters overwhelmingly favored Sen. Obama for president.
But Sen. McCain struggled to find a message that would resonate, running at various times as the experienced insider, a maverick who would shake up Washington, a bipartisan conciliator and a tough-minded 'Country First' war hero.
On Monday, as he has often before, Sen. McCain told the crowd the story of how many Arizonans had run and lost their races for president, including Sen. Goldwater, the late Rep. Morris Udall, and former Gov. Bruce Babbitt.
'Arizona might be the only state in America where mothers don't tell their children that someday they can grow up and be president of the United States,' he said, reprising one of his favorite quips.
Laura Meckler / Jonathan Weisman
▀ 奥巴马赢得历史性胜利 当选美国总统
在俄亥俄、宾夕法尼亚和佛罗里达这几个关键州获得的胜利令奥巴马(Barack Obama)在激烈的总统选战中取得领先，杜绝了竞选对手麦凯恩(John McCain)入主白宫的可能。
麦凯恩在美东时间11月4日晚11:15承认竞选失败、并向奥巴马表示祝贺。他同时还承诺要帮助维护国家的团结。
在俄亥俄州遭遇失利之前，麦凯恩已经输掉了此前摇摆不定的
佛罗里达、宾夕法尼亚、新墨西哥和新罕布什尔，他本来寄希望于拿下这三个州。
奥巴马将成为美国第44任总统，他所借助的是选民对经济状况、伊拉克战争和共和党统治白宫8年时间的强烈不满。美国一直以来都为种族问题而困惑，而奥巴马如能在规模宏大的两年竞选活动之后胜利当选，将改变美国的种族状况。
奥巴马的当选也会开创民主党人统领华盛顿的时代，这将是自比尔•克林顿(Bill Clinton)首届任期头几年以来的第一次。
根据参议院选举的初步结果，民主党人已经获得了
新罕布什尔、北卡罗来纳、新墨西哥和弗吉尼亚
等几个原先由共和党人占据的国会参议员席位。民主党在众议院的领先优势也在进一步增加。
强劲的逆风
如果最终的选举结果符合人们的预期，民主党将同时控制国会参众两院和白宫，从而为民主党人推动涉及医疗保健和金融监管等诸多领域的雄心勃勃改革奠定了基础。而美国糟糕的经济和庞大的预算赤字将给这些改革计划的实施造成严重阻力。
创纪录的竞选资金募集额以及遍布全国的巨大竞选网络是奥巴马此次选战的两大基础。他将携一份长长的施政计划表入主白宫，内容包括结束伊拉克战争，实施一项接近全民参保的医疗保险计划，并为美国找到可替代中东石油的新能源。而疲弱不振的美国经济和仍在持续的金融危机将削弱他实施这些计划的能力。美国经济目前可能已经陷入衰退。
奥巴马在竞选中作出的许多承诺都需耗费巨额资金来实现，而美国创纪录的预算赤字、以及随着婴儿潮时期出生的美国人陆续退休使美国可能经历应享权益的心理危机，凡此种种都有可能加大落实这些承诺的难度。
初步统计结果显示，美国的政坛格局与四年前相比简直有天壤之别。四年前国会两院和白宫都控制在共和党手中，而保守派占多数的美国最高法院也对共和党有利。该党领导人当时甚至扬言共和党会在华盛顿享有永久的多数。
而当选民们今年走向投票站时，他们普遍对当前的经济形势、伊拉克战争以及布什总统感到不满，这些都有利于奥巴马的选情。任何共和党人在当前形势下出来竞选都会面临一场恶战。
奥巴马还拿下了密歇根、明尼苏达和威斯康星这几个倾向于支持民主党的州，麦凯恩在竞选中也对这几个州倾注了努力，以为他以往那些超越党派藩篱的举动会为他赢得独立选民和部分民主党人的支持。
奥巴马在美国东北部和其他等地一贯支持民主党的州无一失手。他拿下了
纽约州、康涅狄格州、佛蒙特州、缅因州、马里兰州、马萨诸塞州和新泽西州，以及他的家乡伊利诺伊州和哥伦比亚特区。
而麦凯恩则如人们所预料的那样赢得了
俄克拉荷马州、田纳西州、肯塔基州、亚拉巴马州、南卡罗来纳州、怀俄明州、北达科他州以及佐治亚州，而后两个州也是奥巴马努力想赢下来的州。
全国投票后进行的民调结果显示，三分之二的拉美裔选民投票支持奥巴马，而年龄在18- 29岁之间的选民中这一比例超过三分之二。他得到了96%的黑人选民支持，黑人选民占总选民比例从11%上升至13%。新教徒中有25%的人投票给奥巴马，高于2004年大选中投给民主党候选人克里的21%。
全国投票后进行的民调结果还显示，奥巴马赢得了多数女性选民的支持，但在男性选民中失利。他在无党派人士中获胜，但在郊区选民中与麦凯恩平分秋色。
对奥巴马有利的一点是，今年选民中的民主党人比例超过了4年前，当时民主党选民数量同共和党基本相同。这次有40%的选民称他们是民主党人，只有32%的人说他们是共和党人。
初步的投票后民调结果显示，85%的选民称对美国经济非常担心，或有些担心，80%的选民担心经济危机会损害他们家庭明年的财务状况。只有20%的选民说，美国总体而言仍在向正确的方向前进。经济已无疑成为选民关注的头号问题。
麦凯恩在经济和外交政策方面都未能打动选民。尽管麦凯恩将对手描绘为加税者，但有一半的选民说，他们预计无论谁获胜，他们的纳税额都会增加。同样，尽管麦凯恩多次宣称美国正在赢得伊拉克战争，但有60%以上的选民不同意这场战争。
选民更可能说麦凯恩从事这项工作的经验胜过奥巴马。但选民也更可能说，奥巴马更了解象他们这样的人，有成为优秀总统的良好的判断力。
扣人心弦的角逐
尽责政治中心(Center for Responsive Politics)称，周二的投票标志着可能是美国历史上持续时间最长，也最为昂贵的总统选举。此次大选花费的总额约为16亿美元，是2004年大选的两倍。经过了近两年的竞选活动后，无论结果如何，美国人都会创造历史。
这次大选有首位激烈角逐党内提名的希拉里(Hillary Clinton)，有首位成为共和党副总统候选人的女性佩林(Sarah Palin)。奥巴马也历史性地成为首位黑人总统候选人。
参加投票的美国人数量有望创历史纪录，其中有30%的选民提前投票。总体而言，登记选民数量比上次总统大选增加了7.3%，有资格投票的人数为1.53亿人。
这也是最广泛使用互联网的一届大选。网上社区将此次大选扩散到了美国的各个角落，这些地方从未经历过如此激烈的助选活动。
最后一搏
奥巴马周二首先在家乡芝加哥同妻子米切尔(Michelle)参加了投票，10岁的女儿玛利亚(Malia)和7岁的女儿萨沙(Sasha)在一旁观看。
在凤凰城，麦凯恩和他的妻子辛迪(Cindy)在Albright United Methodist教堂参加了投票，外面的支持者一直在向他欢呼。
创造历史的数月
大约两年前，奥巴马在伊利诺伊州首府斯普林菲尔德市的州议会大楼前的台阶上宣布将参加竞选。当时他还是一位资历很浅的参议员，公众对他的了解也主要限于他在 2004年民主党全国大会上的主旨演讲和所写的一本畅销书。奥巴马的母亲是堪萨斯州的白人，父亲是曾以放牧山羊为生的肯尼亚移民，初涉政坛的奥巴马名字听起来有些外国味，他结交的各种人在以后的岁月中也常常拖他的后腿。
奥巴马的前牧师杰瑞米亚•赖特(Jeremiah Wright )曾在教会讲坛上做出煽动性的布道。一位已被判刑的重犯托尼•雷兹科(Tony Rezko)在他在芝加哥买房子时帮过忙。共和党派还试图指出奥巴马和他的朋友也是邻居的威廉•艾尔斯(William Ayers)有牵连。艾尔斯是上世纪六十年代美国的一个恐怖分子。
尽管有这样的拖累，奥巴马还是与民主党中最强有力的人物之一希拉里•克林顿一较高下，并且经过漫长的初选获得了胜利。奥巴马的阵营去那些希拉里没有触及的地区拉选票，在爱达荷、堪萨斯和怀俄明等州都获得了胜利。
奥巴马的竞选阵营让他与麦凯恩这位常常与自己的党派意见不和的共和党候选人对阵。奥巴马不遗余力地坚持两个主题：他说，麦凯恩当选相当于是布什连任第三届，而他本人则是带来变革之人。
麦凯恩的父亲和祖父都是四星上将。35年前他作为越战战俘在全国成名。他在战俘营中受的伤令他无法继续飞行，随后他踏上政坛。
2000年他首次竞选总统，在共和党初选中败给了布什。在2008年总统大选的初期，麦凯恩处于领先地位。
他的竞选阵营人员繁冗，花费很高，2007年7月几乎崩溃。他精简队伍后卷土重来。在伊拉克战争非常不受欢迎的时候，他表示支持。他推进并支持2007年初的大幅增兵，此事最后成为伊拉克转变的一大重要因素。
麦凯恩选择阿拉斯加州长佩林作竞选伙伴令保守派喜出望外，却令其他选民敬而远之，尤其是他需要的独立选民。周二进行的投票后离场民调显示，六成选民表示佩林在必要时不能胜任总统职位。那些选民都非常想让奥巴马当总统。
不过，麦凯恩还是好不容易找到了一个能引起选民共鸣的形像，一再强调自己政治经验丰富，是要重塑华盛顿的特立独行的人，是两党之间的调解人，还是一位内心坚强的“把祖国放在第一位”的战争英雄。
周一，如往常一样，麦凯恩对选民说，亚利桑那人有太多次竞选总统而败北的经历，包括古德沃特(Goldwater)、已经去世的优戴尔(Morris Udall)和前州长巴比特(Bruce Babbitt)。
他再次引述了他最喜欢的俏皮话说，亚利桑那可能是美国唯一一个母亲不会告诉孩子长大后有一天能做美国总统的州。
Laura Meckler / Jonathan Weisman
作者：游客 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
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