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 美国股市系列：美股年底反弹希望渺茫 （中英文，转帖） |
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安普若
[博客]
[个人文集]
头衔: 海归元勋
声望: 大师
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加入时间: 2004/02/21
文章: 26038
来自: 中国美国的飞机上
海归分: 4196257
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作者：安普若 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
美股年底反弹希望渺茫
2008年09月03日13:54
投资者本来认为股市今年下半年将能实现人们期盼已久的重振旗鼓，但现在这种希望几乎已经破灭。
现在有许多人认为，股市持续回弹只能等到明年年中才有可能了。即便到了那时，他们的期望值也很有限，因为金融市场的问题仍在蔓延，而没有得到缓和。
管理3.5亿美元资金的Oaktree Asset Management的首席投资长罗伯特•帕夫利克(Robert Pavlik)说，今年早些时候，我们都希望经济能在下半年回暖，进而带动股市反弹。但现在，他认为股市在2008年剩下的时间里前景“悲观”，只能寄希望于2009年能略有恢复。
今年夏天股市大幅震荡，截止上周末，道琼斯工业股票平均指数(Dow Jones Industrial Average)比5月30日低了900点，跌幅达7.5%，较2008年初下挫了13%。上周五，政府报告称个人收入和消费者支出下滑，令道琼斯指数下跌171.63点。（周一劳工节股市休市。）
近几周的信贷市场动也反映出美股和债券市场的压力增加。虽然最近油价有所回落，但仍比上年同期高出55%，汽油价格也依然处于高位。就业前景正在恶化。虽然从业绩角度看，上市公司的抗压能力要超出许多悲观主义者的预期，但压力却是实实在在的。
在美国经济降温数月之后，全球各国和地区经济也在今夏显露疲态，首当其冲的便是欧洲。这不但威胁到了出口商，也损害了大型跨国公司的利润，而这类公司本来是得到股市投资者青睐的少数亮点之一。
加利福尼亚州的金融顾问、客户资产3.3亿美元的尼尔•霍坎森(Neil Hokanson)说，我们不可能突然间就迎来牛市或经济快速增长。
全球经济滑坡甚至影响了原本预计能为市场提供广泛支撑的领域。上周，戴尔公司(Dell Inc.)公布业绩，由于技术支出减少，该公司季度利润下滑17%。Macy's Inc.最近下调了今年的业绩预期，表示在当前的经济形势下很难对业绩做出预测。Olive Garden和Red Lobster这两家餐馆的母公司Darden Restaurants Inc.称，其截止8月24日的财季收益将低于分析师此前预期，并下调了截止明年5月的财年的预期。
今年初，全球各个经济体似乎在互相脱钩，人们以为即便美国经济出现问题，海外市场仍然能够保持增长。现在，随着压力扩散开来，一些世界最大的公司纷纷下调原先的预期。运气比美国汽车厂商好得多的丰田汽车公司(Toyota Motor Corp.)将2009年的销售额目标缩减了将近7%。三星电子(Samsung Electronics Co.)表示，由于美国和欧洲的经济陷入困境，第三和第四季度收益将低于预期，而且全年还会亏损。
美国信贷危机促使人们担心全球金融市场濒临崩溃。虽然美国联邦储备委员会(Fed)和财政部(Treasury)采取积极措施向金融系统注资，缓和了恐慌情绪，但投资者们现在又开始担心房地产市场崩溃和随之而来的信贷危机的影响会持续到2009年甚至更长时间。
上述前景令许多人大为失望。他们本来希望到了今年这个时候，Fed从去年开始累计降息3.25个百分点的举措，会对经济以及饱受打击的房市和艰难挣扎的银行产生提振效果。面对年初股市开局不利，要想实现全年获利的预期就只好指望下半年的反弹，才能确保大家能拿到奖金。
然而，眼下的局面是房价尚未触底，而银行还在紧缩银根。许多人认为就业市场的低迷才刚刚开始。7月的失业率是四年来最高的，就业人数也连续第七个月减少。
通常，在经济放缓的情况下，抵押贷款利率会降低。然而，眼下30年固定利率抵押贷款的平均利率比上年同期高出0.25个百分点，部分原因在于房利美 (Fannie Mae)和房地美(Freddie Mac)这两家美国最大的抵押贷款担保商遭遇困境。就连通常会与Fed的调息举措保持同步的一年期可调息抵押贷款也只比上年同期低了0.5个百分点。
公司发行债券的成本也相对较高，并且在今夏又进一步恶化。美林公司(Merrill Lynch)的投资级别债券指数收益率比政府债券高3.2个百分点，7月中旬比政府债券高出2.9个百分点。这一水平甚至高过今年3月中旬贝尔斯登公司 (Bear Stearns Cos.)受信贷危机影响而倒闭的时候。
Lord Abbbet & Co.的投资组合经理丹尼尔•弗拉斯卡尔利(Daniel Frascarelli)说，考虑到银行和券商的大规模损失冲减还将继续的预期，上述情况就意味着股市还没到触底的时候。
不过，他也不是完全看衰市场。几个月来的，弗拉斯卡尔利一直在调整自己的抗跌持仓，增持了投资组合中所占比例相对较小的金融股，同时减少原先较为重头的医疗保健公司持股。
在股市反常的情况下，任何预测都可能是错误的。意外事件可能会挽救股市，比如说油价持续下跌至每桶100美元以下。还有两个月美国就要进行总统大选，可能会出现一些影响市场的动向。
但投资者们对股市很快复苏不报期望也有许多理由。
今年早些时候股市一片惨淡之时，从全球能源及其他大宗商品热潮中受益的公司成了万绿丛中一点红。由于欧洲一些地区徘徊在衰退边缘，中国和印度等新兴大国的增长也有所放缓，这一模式似乎也走到了尽头。
由于农产品、金属和石油价格一道从高点回落，道琼斯-美国国际集团商品指数(DJ-AIG Commodity Index)自7月初以来下跌了20%左右。
Federated Investors的股票策略师琳达•迪塞尔(Linda Duessel)说，很难说市场的下一个领头羊会是谁。面对所有的这些矛盾，今年剩下的时间里市场将会横盘整理。
许多人认为，对公司业绩将在下半年大幅反弹（从而支撑股市回稳）的预期过于乐观。分析师们都在大幅调低对第三季度业绩的预测。据当前预计，标普500指数成份股公司的运营收益增长率为2.4%，比7月初预测的13%大为降低。据汤姆森-路透的数据，第二季度收益下跌22%，跌幅超出预期。
分析师们坚持认为，第四季度收益将较上年同期增长60%，部分原因在于去年不景气的金融和消费类股预计将会反弹。按照这样的普遍预测，利润将会达到创纪录的水平，但考虑到当前的经济形势和利润空间的压力，许多人觉得这一点难以实现。
Oaktree的帕夫利克说，大家都认为，由于比较数据有利，下半年的情况会好转，但我不知道增长能来自哪方面。
摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)股票策略师查克拉博蒂(Abhijit Chakrabortti)预测，第四季度收益将比大多数人预测的低8%，8月底，他将标普500指数的年末目标调整为基本持平。
Tom Lauricella
Hopes Fade For Stocks To Make Late Comeback
2008年09月03日13:54
Hopes have all but faded among investors that the stock market will be able to mount a much-anticipated second-half comeback.
Many now think a sustained rebound for stocks may not be in the cards until the middle of next year. Even then, their expectations are limited as the problems in the financial markets continue to spread rather than ease.
'Earlier in the year, we had hoped that the economy would see an uptick in the second half,' and stocks could rally, said Robert Pavlik, chief investment officer at Oaktree Asset Management, which manages some $350 million. Now, he characterizes his outlook for the stock market through the rest of 2008 as 'gloomy' and hopes for 'some kind of modest recovery in 2009.'
Stocks swung widely over the summer, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average going into the Labor Day weekend more than 900 points lower than on Memorial Day -- a 7.5% drop -- and down 13% from where it started 2008. Friday, government reports of declines in personal incomes and consumer spending sent the Dow down 171.63 points. (Stock markets were closed Monday for Labor Day.)
Credit markets have been signaling heightened strains for U.S. stocks and bonds in recent weeks. Even after recent declines, oil prices are up more than 55% from a year ago, and gasoline prices are still near record highs. The employment outlook is getting worse. Corporate earnings, while proving more resilient than many pessimists had predicted, remain under pressure.
After months of a slowing U.S. economy, the summer brought evidence that others around the globe were beginning to struggle, especially in Europe. That threatens exporters and undercuts profits at big multinational companies, which had been one of the few bright spots for stock investors.
'We just can't make a case for a sudden bull market or a sudden economic surge,' said Neil Hokanson, a Solana Beach, Calif., financial adviser with client assets of $330 million.
The global economic slump is having an effect even on areas that had been expected to support the broader market. Last week, Dell Inc. reported a 17% drop in quarterly profit amid a slowdown in technology spending. Macy's Inc. recently lowered its outlook for the year, saying it is difficult to forecast results given the economic backdrop. The parent of Olive Garden and Red Lobster restaurants, Darden Restaurants Inc., said its earnings for the fiscal quarter ended Aug. 24 will be below analyst expectations and lowered its forecast for the year ending in May.
Early this year, it looked like global economies were decoupling -- that overseas markets could sustain their growth even as the U.S. faltered. Now, as the pressure spreads, some of world's biggest companies are scaling back their forecasts. Toyota Motor Corp., whose fortunes have been much better than those of U.S. auto makers, cut its 2009 sales target by nearly 7%. Samsung Electronics Co. said third- and fourth-quarter earnings will be weaker than expected and that it would post a loss for the full year because of economic woes in the U.S. and Europe.
The credit crunch in the U.S. spawned fears that global financial markets were on the verge of collapse. Aggressive efforts by the Federal Reserve and the Treasury to inject money into the financial system eased that sense of panic, but it has been replaced by a pervasive dejection among investors that troubles borne out of the collapse of the real-estate markets and subsequent credit crunch will persist well into 2009, if not further.
The outlook is disappointing those who had hoped that by this time of the year, the Fed's aggressive interest-rate cuts that began in 2007 and eventually totaled 3.25 percentage points would be giving a lift to the economy as well as the battered housing market and struggling banks. After a disappointing start of the year for stocks, a second-half rally would vindicate early forecasts for full-year gains and ensure that bonuses are paid.
Instead, home prices haven't hit bottom, and banks are still tightening lending standards. Many believe the job market is only in the early stages of a downturn. The unemployment rate for July was the highest in four years, and job losses continued for the seventh straight month.
Typically, in a slow economy, mortgage rates would be falling. The average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is more than a quarter-point higher than a year ago, partly because of the woes afflicting Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the nation's largest backers of mortgage loans. Even one-year adjustable-rate mortgages, which generally move in lock step with the Fed's actions, are down just half a point from this time last year.
It also is relatively expensive for corporate borrowers to tap the bond markets, a situation that worsened over the summer. The yield on Merrill Lynch's index of investment-grade debt is 3.2 percentage points above government debt, up from 2.9 points in mid-July. That is even higher than the levels in mid-March that occurred as brokerage firm Bear Stearns Cos. was collapsing amid the effects of the credit crunch.
Combined with expectations of continued big write-offs at banks and brokerages, this means 'there is still more to go before the stock market bottoms out,' said Lord Abbbet & Co. portfolio manager Daniel Frascarelli.
Still, his outlook isn't entirely bearish. Mr. Frascarelli has been tweaking defensive positions that have been in place for months, increasing his relatively small holdings of financials while trimming back his larger holdings of health-care companies.
In the perverse ways of the stock market, any predictions may turn out to be wrong. An unexpected event, such as a sustained drop in oil prices -- say, to less than $100 a barrel -- could come to the stock market's rescue. With a presidential election two months away, there could be a number of market-moving developments.
Still, there are many reasons investors don't expect a recovery in stocks soon.
During difficult times for stocks in the early part of the year, companies that benefited from the global boom in energy and other commodities provided an island of green amid the sea of red. With parts of Europe teetering on recession and growth in big emerging markets such as China and India slowing, that pattern seems to have run its course.
The DJ-AIG Commodity Index has fallen about 20% since early July as agricultural commodities and metals have tumbled from their highs along with oil.
'It's hard to say what the next leadership could be for the market,' said Linda Duessel, a stock strategist at Federated Investors. With all the crosscurrents, 'we're talking about a sideways market' for the remainder of the year, she said.
Many think forecasts for a big bounce in corporate profits later this year -- which would support a rally -- are overly optimistic. Analysts have been slashing third-quarter forecasts. Companies in the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index are now expected to post growth in operating earnings of 2.4%, down from the 13% forecast at the beginning of July. In the second quarter, earnings fell a worse-than-expected 22%, according to Thomson Reuters.
For the fourth quarter, analysts are sticking with forecasts that earnings will jump 60% from a year earlier, in part because of an expected bounce-back from depressed year-earlier levels on financials and consumer stocks. But that consensus forecast would take profits to record highs, which many feel is unrealistic given the economic environment and pressures on margins.
'People are saying that the second half of this year turns out better because of the favorable comparisons -- but I can't find where the growth is going to come from,' said Oaktree's Mr. Pavlik.
Abhijit Chakrabortti, a stock strategist at Morgan Stanley, predicts that fourth-quarter earnings will come in 8% lower than the consensus, and in late August he revised his year-end target for the S&P 500 to be essentially flat.
Tom Lauricella
作者：安普若 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
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 美国股市系列：美股年底反弹希望渺茫 （中英文，转帖） -- 安普若 - (10973 Byte) 2008-9-05 周五, 15:28 (2883 reads)
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